McCain on SNL

Could the youth vote be up for grabs?

Barack Obama's greatest success to date is his ability to mobilize American youth, who have voted in overwhelming numbers in this year's primaries and caucuses. Without the large turnout of college students and 18-24 year olds, Hillary would currently be the nominee. It is always assumed that Democrats garner the youth vote and this was true in the past few elections (18-24 year olds supported Kerry over Bush in 2004, 56 to 44 percent. That same year, party identification among 18-24 year olds split 39 percent Democrat, 32 percent Republican, and 29 percent unaffiliated). Yet this was not always the case. Ronald Reagan won the youth vote by more than 20 points in 1980 and 1984 and George H.W. Bush also won the youth vote in 1988, although by a smaller margin.

And while most of the youth registered as Democrats to vote for Obama in the state-by-state contests, there are some encouraging signs for the GOP. In most contests, 18-24 year olds as a pecertage of total Democratic voters was usually only a point or two higher than the portion of 18-24 year olds as a percentage of total Republican voters--the largest difference occured in Iowa, where 22 percent of Democrats were 18-24 years old compared to only 11 percent of Republicans--this can be attributed to the excitement leading up to the first-in-the-nation caucuses and Obama's unprecedented campus mobilization effort. In two states--Arkansas and Connecticut--young voters (18-24) actually made up a greater proportion of Republican primary voters than Democratic primary voters. In three states, 18-24 year olds turned out in greater numbers to vote Republican than Democrat--in other words, a majority of 18-24 year olds who turned out to vote in Florida, Georgia, and Utah voted Republican.

And the Obama magic may be starting to wear off. A recent AP-Yahoo! News poll finds that 38 percent of 18-29 year olds support McCain vs. 37 percent for Obama (McCain wins young voters 43-28 percent against Hillary). Trying to obtain an accurate sample of youth is fairly difficult since many have only cell phones (no landlines) and are in college, moving back and forth from their personal places of residency to their campuses. Yet the poll shows that McCain's independent image as a maverick and reformer can help offset and neutralize Obama's appeal.

One thing is for sure: no party can afford to ignore the youth vote any longer. More than 10 million youth turned out to vote in the 2006 midterm elections, a 4 percent increase from 2004. Those numbers are expected to dramatically increase this year, making the "millenial" generation a powerful voting block and a force to be reckoned with in future elections.

Conservatives Make a Comeback in UK, electing first Conservative London Mayor as Europe Makes Turn to the Right

After 18 years of Labour control, the Conservative Party routed its opposition in local elections throughout the United Kingdom last weekend as the Labour party suffered its worst defeat in more than four decades, losing 330 seats in local legislative bodies around the country and seeing its share of the national vote drop to 28 percent. British Prime Minister Gordon Brown suffers from his lowest approval rating and nationally, according to the latest polling, the Conservative party enjoys its largest lead over Labour since 1968, with 49 percent of the British electorate favoring the Conservatives compared to Labour's 34 percent. Over the weekend, the Conservatives gained control of 12 town councils while Labour lost 9, giving the Conservatives control of 65 town councils compared to Labour's 18. The Tories posted a net gain of 257 councillors to give them a total of 3,155 elected councillors while Labour lost 334 councillors giving them a total of 2,365 elected councillors. Nationally, the Tories garnered 44 percent of the vote compared to Labour's 24 percent.

Probably the biggest story of the night was the election of London's first Conservative mayor EVER! Boris Johnson, a former journalist who was born in the United States and edited the politically conservative American magazine The American Spectator, beat Ken Livingstone (whose defense of radical Islamic leaders and visits to Cuba and Venezuela where he lavished praise on those dictatorial leaders earned him the nickname of "Ken the Red"). Livingstone was a self-declared socialist who was forced out of the Labour party and only recently re-admitted. Johnson's win over Livingstone by 140,000 votes out of more than 2 million cast cannot be understated. Everyone thought he would close the gap significantly, but no media or pundits predicted that a conservative could win control of the United Kingdom's largest and most politically liberal city. Astonishingly enough, Conservatives now have a plurality of seats on London's General Assembly (the equivalent of a American city council) with 12 seats compared to Labour's 8 seats.

By 2010, it is expected that Conservatives will win a majority in parliament and elect David Cameron Prime Minister, fully returning the Conservatives to power for the first time since the days of Margaret Thatcher and John Major.

This is significant on many fronts. Last year, France elected its most conservative and pro-American president in decades, Nicholas Sarkozy, who pledged to bring free market reforms to the socialist country and implement a far-reaching tax cut.

Just a few weeks ago, Italians returned Silvio Berlusconi to power as prime minister and gave his conservative Forza Italia! party majorities in both houses. Silvio Berlusconi is unabashedly pro-American and supported the War in Iraq politically and militarily. For the first time since World War II, not one Communist or Green party member was elected to the Italian parliament.

And in 2005, anti-American liberal, Social Democrat Gerhard Schroeder was thrown out of office as Germans elected right-of-center Christian Democratic Union candidate Angela Merkel as their new chancellor. Merkel, who was raised in Communist East Germany, is an avid free-market proponent and anti-Communist, having been victim to Communist oppression as a child.

In 2006, Swedish voters rejected the ruling Social Democrats and elected Fredrik Reinfeldt of the Moderate Party (a center-right party) as their prime minister, giving Swedish conservatives only their second victory in 26 years. Reinfeldt ran on a platform of tax cuts, union reforms, and privatization and is also a fervant American supporter (incidentally, he traveled to the U.S. in 2004 to work on behalf of Bush's re-election and his party is a member of the International Democratic Union (ICU), an organization of center-right parties from around the world of which the U.S. Republican Party is a member). Under Reinfeldt's leadership, Sweden supported American involvement in Iraq and is a partner in helping to rebuild the country.

So as Europe tires of decades of experimenting with anti-Americanism, big governmnent, burdensome labor laws, and lagging productivity and high unemployment, the continent is seeking to reform its socialist welfare states and is trending rightward like never before.

The question is: just as Europe begins to elect leaders with similarities to the American values of individualism, capitalism, free market innovations, and limited government, will Americans do the unthinkable and elect one of the most liberal Democrats whose agenda includes socialist elements, and in turn send a message to Europe that we are no longer committed to the ideals that we helped foster and spread to their continent?

2nd, 3rd District Updates

2nd District Update
Lynn Jenkins opened her campaign office to much fanfare on Saturday. The office was crowded and Kansans were eager to hear the State Treasurer speak. Kansas' new national Republican Committeewoman, Helen Van Etten, was also present. Just one day before, the campaign released an internal poll that showed Jenkins beating Ryun, 48 to 41 percent. Jenkins pledged not to go negative and reiterated the three main planks of her campaign: making the Bush tax cuts permanent, cutting spending, and ending illegal immigration--all part of her theme of bringing "New Republican Leadership" to Washington. Jenkins also alleged that Ryun's negative attacks against her were a substitute for his lack of legislative accomplishments while serving in the house. Lynn said she has visited every county in the 2nd district; Jim Ryun is also working hard, visiting every county. This will be a blockbuster primary and general election race against "Bad News" Boyda.

3rd District Update
Jordan continues to work hard and has posted incredible fundraising totals. On April 14th, Jordan and his campaign staff stood outside local post offices to remind taxpayers of Dennis Moore's poor record on taxes and his failure to vote for tax relief for millions of hardworking Americans.

According to Stu Rothenberg, the 2nd District race is currently a toss-up, and the 3rd District race has been demoted from "likely Democratic" to "leans Democratic." We at the Konnection expect the 3rd District rating to change soon to "toss up" as well, now that Moore has to run against a popular state senator with a record of accomplishment--something that Moore does not have. Several years ago, jokes were made that Moore was perhaps the most unknown congressman among his colleagues--few fellow representatives could identify him. The third district, a hub for business and bio-science, should be represented by a congressman who is recognizable by all and who fights for his district by actually sponsoring bills and taking a leadership position in the house. Representation for Johnson, Wyandotte, and part of Douglas counties has been lacking for 10 years now--Kansas deserves better.

Lynn Jenkins Campaign Office Grand Opening

The Konnection has learned that the Lynn Jenkins for Congress campaign will be celebrating the grand opening of their new campaign office in Topeka this Saturday, May 3rd from 10:30 to 11:30 am at 4011 SW Gage Blvd. Supporters are invited to join the campaign for doughnuts and coffee, while learning how to get involved in one of the most closely watched congressional races in the country.

Missouri enters debate over drinking age

Missouri voters will have the eyes of the nation on them as they vote on many ballot initiatives including a ban on affirmative action, a possible, limitations on the embryonic stem cell initiative passed in '06, and now an initiative to lower the legal drinking age to 18.

Six other states, including Vermont, South Dakota, Kentucky, South Carolina, and Wisconsin are also considering bills or referendums to lower the legal drinking age (Kentucky, South Carolina, and Wisconsin would only lower the drinking age to 18 for members of the military).

Before 1984, drinking laws were a matter of states' rights and the laws varied from state-to-state. MADD and other groups lobbied congress to pass the Uniform Drinking Age Act in 1984 which just encouraged all states to raise their drinking age to 21. Oh, and one little caveat: states who refused to change their laws would lose billions in coveted federal highway dollars. Leave it to the federal government to give the impression it is giving states a "choice" when in reality it is exerting the most effective type of coercion.

Hence, today every state uniformly upholds the drinking age of 21. Some of these states proposing a lower drinking age--by voter referendum or state legislative action--will undoubtedly risk losing 10 percent of their federal highway dollars. It's anyone's guess how Missourians will vote on this issue. Before 1984, Missouri already had a legal drinking age of 21, while Kansas allowed 18 year olds to drink (it was common practice for Kansas City area youth on the Missouri side to drive over to Wyandotte or Johnson County and drink legally). Kansas seems to be unwilling to revisit the issue: there is no action on the legislative front, and Kansas does not have the progressive and unique statutes that faciliate voter-driven initiatives and referendums, so any change in the short-term is unlikely.

The National Survey on Drug Use and Health in 2005 reported that 85 percent of 20 year old Americans had consumed alcohol and nearly 40 percent of them had binged. Government officials privately admit that alcohol use among youth has not decreased since the 1984 law was passed, but has actually increased, raising concerns about the effectiveness of the law, as underage drinking is driven underground, away from the watchful eyes of other adults in public places such as bars and restaurants. The troubling increase in binge drinking corresponds with this, as all the available data shows that European nations with legal drinking ages of 21 have much lower rates of binge drinking, while the U.S. and UK experience the highest rate of binge drinking.

Underage drinking is seen as a form of rebellion and teenagers revel in the ability to engage in an illegal activity, often consuming alchol to excess. Part of the problem is our nation's tendency to focus police resources on combatting underage drinking while taking a light and and less harsh attitude towards the real culprit--drunk driving. Norway allows its citizens to drink at 18 but it also has some of the harshest laws for drunk driving--a mandatory 10 year sentence on the first offense, which ensures a low rate of drunk driving in the country. The United States, however, has no uniform laws and often repeat offenders have to be caught 2, 3, or 4 times before they face ANY prison time at all. It's abominable, but our culture looks at drunk driving much more lightly, as a situation that many people do at some point in their lives, so it's not so bad (that's what Rosie O'Donnell said in not so many words on the View a while back).

What's the answer? I understand concerns about lowering the drinking age, but obviously what we have now doesn't work. And it's incredibly hypocritical to crackdown on underage youth who may drink a single beer and then give a pass to drunk drivers who habitually re-offend until they ultimately kill someone (which in some cases, still only involves fines of little more than $100).

What say you? Will this Missouri law pass and should it? Or should we focus on combatting binge drinking?

"This is the race that never ends..."

Set aside all the political spin, last night's double-digit win for Hillary was dramatic and notable for many reasons. First, Obama had 6 weeks to change perceptions about his associations with Louis Farrakhan, Jeremiah Wright, domestic terrorist William Ayers, and others, but he couldn't even reduce Hillary's win to single digits. Some facts to consider:

• Hillary was outspent 11 to 1 and still managed a 10 point victory. Obama spent $11 million in Pennsylvania and ran 10,000 ads, saturating the airwaves, yet he couldn't close the gap
• Hillary performed better in PA then in previous contests among women, blue collar workers, and whites, while Obama held on to affluent voters and blacks. 60 percent of Catholics supported Hillary, a vital PA constituency in the fall that could shift to McCain if Obama's the nominee. Union workers and gun-owners also flocked to Hillary by a more than 10 point margin, suggesting Obama's "bitter" comments had an effect
• Obama only won 7 out of Pennsylvania's 67 counties. Hillary won 13 counties with 70 percent or more of the vote. Obama did not reach 70 percent in any of the counties he won
• In Philadelphia, PA's most urban county and Obama's base of support (43 percent black), pundits and analysts argued that Obama needed to get 75-80 percent of the vote to close the gap with Hillary. This should have been relatively easy. Instead, Obama only garnered 65 percent of the vote in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania's largest city with one of the highest concentrations of African Americans.
• Pundits also said Obama would sweep the Philly suburbs, enabling him to reduce Hillary's lead to a few points or win outright. Instead, he divided the Philly suburbs with Hillary, winning Chester and Delaware counties while Hillary won Bucks and Montgomery counties. In a reversal of media predictions, Hillary won Montgomery County, a suburban enclave that is the most-populated county outside Philadelphia.

Populism vs. Establishment

Some patterns are manifesting themselves: Hillary surrounded herself with union supporters and women while giving her victory speech. Her tone and rhetoric has become increasingly populist in nature as she talks more openly about guns and religion, realizing that Reagan Democrats have been the key to her victories. She cannot afford to lose this. This is a dynamic reversal of conditions at the beginning of the election cycle, when Hillary started out as the establishment candidate and Obama was the outsider, forging a new way and causing concern among liberal activists that he was too much of a pushover and emphasized unity to the detriment of promoting the values and beliefs of the far-left wing of the party. Now, Obama is the establishment candidate, having won 28 contests so far. The netroots (MoveOn.org, DailyKos) have supported Obama and he has now become the insider, and Hillary is positioning herself as the outsider who represents the more conservative, rural, working-class voters often ignored or scorned by the left until the second week in November. Hillary is acutely aware that the Democrats cannot win without these voters, but are other party leaders aware of this? Although the populist and establishment candidate have switched places, Democrats should not be debating experience vs. change, but establishment vs. populism. While some may bristle at the claim that Hillary is not establishment, (she clearly is) she has successfully conveyed her populist credentials and transformed herself, however deceptively, which may be a more appealing selling point in the general election than Obama's rhetoric of change and hope, which have been marginalized by his extremely troubling associations and his decision to go negative on Hillary and McCain.

Democrats tried running an establishment candidate in 2004 and came up short. One would think they would want to go with a populist message and candidate that resonates in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan instead of an establishment message with an emphasis on some notion of change, whose candidate will only resonate in states like Massachusetts, New York, and California. This is the decision Democrats have to make.